Everything you need to know about BracketProof’s March Madness predictions.
Over 13 years of backtested predictions (2013–2026), BracketProof has correctly predicted 11 of 13 NCAA Tournament champions — a 84.6% hit rate. The average ESPN bracket score is 1386, compared to a chalk baseline of 910. All results are validated using leave-one-out cross-validation, meaning the model never saw the year it was predicting. The 2026 tournament was a true forward test with predictions locked before Selection Sunday.
BracketProof uses a multi-model ensemble — XGBoost, Random Forest, and LightGBM — trained on KenPom efficiency data, late-season trajectory, and injury signals. The system trains separate models for each round of the tournament, with specialized models for key first-round matchup types, plus a dedicated championship model. Over 5 million model configurations are tested across 65 million total evaluations to find the optimal settings per model type.
Basic predictions are free for everyone after Selection Sunday. A paid tier provides early access to predictions, multi-bracket strategies, detailed matchup analysis, and pool optimization tools. The core bracket and track record are always accessible at no cost.
BracketProof uses KenPom adjusted efficiency metrics — the gold standard for college basketball analytics. This includes offensive and defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent strength), tempo, strength of schedule, and their decomposed components. The system also incorporates late-season trajectory data and pre-tournament injury signals. In total, 650+ matchup features per game feed into the predictions.
Two things set BracketProof apart. First, a verifiable track record: every year’s prediction is published with round-by-round accuracy, ESPN scores, and the champion pick — no cherry-picking, no revisions. Second, transparent methodology: we explain exactly how the model works, what data it uses, and how it’s validated. Most prediction sites show you a number without showing their work.
Yes. The NIL era and transfer portal have reshaped college basketball since 2021, with rosters turning over 40–60% year to year. BracketProof’s model trains on measurable efficiency data that updates every season, so it adapts naturally to roster upheaval. It doesn’t rely on historical program identity or recruiting rankings that break down when half the roster is new. Since 2021, the model has called 6 of 6 champions and averaged 1,457 ESPN points per year.
Predictions are generated and published after Selection Sunday, once the full 68-team bracket is set. Paid subscribers get early access as soon as the bracket is announced. Free predictions are available shortly after.
An override feature is coming soon that will let you swap in your own picks while seeing how each change affects your expected score and pool win probability. For now, the bracket viewer shows BracketProof’s optimized picks for each year.
Pick the right champion. The championship pick is worth 320 ESPN points — more than the entire first round combined (320 points for 32 games). A correct champion pick swings your total score by hundreds of points and is the single biggest factor in winning a pool. BracketProof’s dedicated championship model is built around exactly this insight.
Still have questions? See the methodology in detail or check the full track record.